The United States could see the closure of 15,000 churches this year, according to new research.

As Axios first reported, the unprecedented decline in churches could leave vulnerable communities, particularly in rural America, without essential services such as food, childcare, and disaster relief that many of the communities have depended on. This sharp decline also reflects another trend in America’s society: more people report identifying as religiously unaffiliated. 

According to the Pew Research Center, roughly 62% of Americans identify as Christian compared to 78% in 2007. Simultaneously, large non-denominational megachurches and evangelical Christianity are rising in influence. The shift is reportedly driven by politics, politicians, and conservative groups that are moving to expand religion’s role in public schools and other institutions.

With more than 15,000 churches expected to close, some groups warn that it highlights a larger problem in the United States: retaining full-time pastors has proven to be challenging. The National Council of Churches warned that a total of 100,000 US churches — or a quarter of the nation’s total — could close in the future, and an estimated 15,000 pastors could transition into part-time.

One reason why retention is challenging is because of the inability to meet basic needs with their salaries, with many forced to take on second jobs to support their families.

Recent data shows that the median salary for a full-time pastor in the U.S. is around $56,000 per year, but that number changes depending on church size, budget, and location. Only 10% of pastors receive a salary that places them in the upper-middle class bracket of $94,001 - $153,000.